Pardon My Bias

National League

Cy Young

1) Madison Bumgarner

2) Clayton Kershaw

3) Roy Halladay

MVP

1) Troy Tulowitzki

2) Justin Upton

3) Giancarlo Stanton

NL West

1) Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73)

2) Colorado Rockies (86-78)

3) San Francisco Giants (85-77)

4) Los Angeles Dodgers (72-90)

5) San Diego Padres (69-93)

There’s not a lot of difference between the top 3 teams in this division. The Rockies play well at home and can hit a ton, but Jim Tracy might be the worst in-game manager in baseball. The Giants play well at home and can pitch like hell, but haven’t made any significant improvements to their lineup in two years. The Diamondbacks play well at home and are balanced, but have depth questions on both sides of the ball. Everything went right for Arizona last year–their young pitchers had breakout seasons, guys like Gerardo Parra and Ryan Roberts had career years and their bullpen stayed healthy. It’s hard to expect that to happen again, but the roster is still full of young players that have yet to establish their ceilings and have Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs in their back pockets as young studs that could come in and have impacts right away. The Rockies could surprise people this year and they have young arms in their rotation such as Juan Nicasio and Drew Pomeranz that could have breakout years. The Giants have a razor thin margin of error–if their pitching falls off even slightly, they do not have any upside on the offensive side of the ball to make up for it. Pagan is a marginal improvement over Torres, Freddy Sanchez is still injured, it’s hard to count on anything from Aubrey Huff and their OF defense is worse than it was last year. The Dodgers have newfound hope now that the black cloud of Frank McCourt has left, but their farm system is still a barren wasteland and their rotation depth is frighteningly shallow.

Breakout Player: Trevor Bauer (SP), Diamondbacks

Player in Decline: Andre Ethier (OF), Dodgers

NL Central

1) St. Louis Cardinals (87-75)

2) Cincinnati Reds (81-81)

3) Milwaukee Brewers (78-84)

4) Pittsburgh Pirates (75-87)

5) Chicago Cubs (69-93)

6) Houston Astros (60-102)

So, the Cardinals won the World Series last year. And nobody’s talking about them. They did lose Pujols, but they are getting Adam Wainwright back from injury. The addition of Carlos Beltran will be key to their season–if he stays healthy (and he hasn’t been able to consistently do that in a long time) the loss of Pujols becomes manageable. They have a large margin of error in this division because the rest of the teams haven’t shown the same amount of consistency as the Cardinals have in the last 5 years.  The Reds have held the title of “teasers” for a long time–their roster is unbelievably talented, but unbelievably erratic as well. From Jonny Cueto to Drew Stubbs to Aroldis Chapman, the roster is full of high ceiling, highly volatile players. The rest of the division is pretty nondescript–expect the Pirates to be better, the Brewers to tread water and the Cubs and Astros to be terrible.

Breakout Player: Jay Bruce (OF), Reds

Player in Decline: Carlos Beltran (OF), Cardinals

NL East

1) Philadelphia Phillies (93-69)

2) Miami Marlins (88-74)

3) Washington Nationals (87-75)

4) Atlanta Braves (85-77)

5) New York Mets (62-100)

The Phillies won 102 games last year and they return the majority of their roster this year. However, the hands of time are impossible to stop and injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have produced many questions about the durability of this roster. The Catch-22 for the front office is how they can afford to keep the same group of good players around, watch them get older and keep their championship window open. The Marlins are the new chic team in the division with their new ballpark, new manager and new shortstop in Jose Reyes. Their offense is full of young talent that has yet to blossom and guys like Stanton, Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez will have a big say in how far the team goes. The Nationals are full of good, young players as well and their acquisitions of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson have bolstered their rotation. However, there’s a feeling that with such a young team, they’re still about a year away. The Braves have had problems piecing together a consistent offense and their biggest challenge will be help a young pitching staff (Beachy, Minor, Teheran, Jurrjens) mature as fast as possible.

Breakout Player: Jason Heyward (OF), Braves

Player in Decline: Jayson Werth (OF), Nationals

American League

Cy Young

1) David Price

2) Justin Verlander

3) CC Sabathia

MVP

1) Robinson Cano

2) Albert Pujols

3) Miguel Cabrera

AL West

1) Texas Rangers (97-65)

2) Los Angeles Angels (94-68)

3) Seattle Mariners (69-93)

4) Oakland A’s (65-97)

Southern California is now littered with Pujols billboards, much like it was with Manny Ramirez billboards a few years ago. The flashy signings by the Halos have drawn attention to their club, but the Rangers have had an interesting offseason as well, headlined by the acquisition of Yu Darvish. The Angels hold an obvious edge in pitching, but the Rangers have as deep a roster as any team in baseball. The key to the Rangers season will be how well Darvish acclimates to pitching in MLB and how well Neftali Feliz adapts to his new role as a starter. The key to this division could be how soon younger players such as Mike Trout and Leonys Martin can make impacts. There will be a huge gap between these two teams and the other two teams in this division. Oakland has it’s eyes set on competing 4-5 years from now, hopefully in a new ballpark and Seattle’s inept offense will be hard pressed to surpass even its measly output from last year.

Breakout Player: Elvis Andrus (SS), Rangers

Player in Decline: Torii Hunter (OF), Angels

AL Central

1) Detroit Tigers (97-65)

2) Kansas City Royals (80-84)

3) Minnesota Twins (79-85)

4) Cleveland Indians (76-86)

5) Chicago White Sox (75-87)

The biggest storyline in the division this off-season was the surprising move by the Tigers to hand Prince Fielder a boatload of money. The signing set up the best 1-2 offensive punch in baseball, but also left many people amused at the thought that Miguel Cabrera could move back to third base and left many questioning the Tigers defense in general (Cabrera at 3rd, Peralta at SS and Fielder at 1st…yuck). The Tigers will win this division barring catastrophic injuries–the rest of the teams in the division have major holes that will not fix themselves over the season. The Indians are riddled with injury questions–Santana, Hafner, Sizemore–and questions about whether or not their breakout players of recent years (Cabrera, Masterson) can keep up their performances. The Royals, for the first time in a few years, are poised to hover around .500 because of the influx of young talent into the roster. Don’t be surprised if you see Eric Hosmer hit .280 with 25 HR’s and 100 RBI’s in his first big season. The Twins are always underrated because nothing about the team stimulates a “wow” factor at first glance, but GM Terry Ryan is the master of identifying players who can be “overachievers” relative to their talent.

Breakout Player: Eric Hosmer (1B), Royals

Player in Decline: Justin Morneau (1B/DH), Twins

AL East

1) Tampa Bay Rays (95-68)

2) New York Yankees (93-69)

3) Boston Red Sox (88-74)

4) Toronto Blue Jays (86-76)

5) Baltimore Orioles (70-92)

This is by far the best division in baseball and it really has nothing to do with the Red Sox and the Yankees. The Rays and Blue Jays have been forced to “cut out the fat” from their baseball operations in order to have any chance of contending with Boston and New York and both franchises have done admirably well. The Rays have, by far, the best pitching staff in baseball and it has nothing to do with having 2-3 studs–their #6 starter is Wade Davis, who would easily be the #5 starter on any other team in baseball. The Blue Jays have stockpiled an amazing amount of solid prospects, but their pitching is a few years away from having an impact. Expect the Yankees, bolstered by the acquisitions of Pineda and Kuroda, to hold a slight edge over the Red Sox who can never seem to stay healthy. The Rays are the best team in this division and are the best prepared to survive the battle of attrition that is a 162 game regular season.

Breakout Player: Matt Moore (SP), Rays

Player in Decline: Derek Jeter (SS), Yankees

World Series

Rays over Diamondbacks

 

The Superbowl, and its over-the-top halftime show, has come and gone, so the time is ripe to stop and smell the leather. Spring brings sporadic rain, May flowers, warmer weather and the annual traditional migration of the baseball universe down south to Arizona and Florida. There will be pitchers and catchers, superstars and non-roster invitees, phenoms and hungry veterans, 99-MPH fastballs and Livan Hernandez Curveballs, oh and there might be a Manny sighting too.

Another longstanding tradition at the start of any sports season is the unveiling of the fabled Power Rankings, made famous by sports websites everywhere, which aim to accurately predict the unpredictable: just how good is every team? The answer is obviously, how the hell is anyone supposed to know that? Development, regression, luck and injuries are 4 variables that are hardly predictable. But what the hell, everyone loves prognostication so why not?

This version of the power rankings is a little different. It takes a look at the top 5 players on each team in baseball, including a sixth player that is currently just a prospect, but should have some future value to the team, and ranks each organization based on those 6 players only. The main task is, in the next 5 years, rank each teams core group of 5-6 players in terms of their projected value. Preference is given to proven and young talent. Those two aren’t mutually exclusive (see: Madison Bumgarner, David Price, Mike Stanton, etc.) so a combination of those two traits is treated as the “ideal” player.

Also, organizations that are top-heavy even within their top-5 players (see: Rockies) are ranked lower than those that are more evenly balanced (see: Diamondbacks) when their lists have almost equal rankings. Positional value is also taken into account, so a catcher with equal hitting ability as a first baseman will be rated higher because of position scarcity [there are more first baseman that can hit than there are catchers]. The sixth player, or prospect, that accompanies each list is used as a tie-breaker between two evenly-matched teams.

This is, by far, the most research I’ve ever put into a blog post. I hope two things come out of it: an enjoyable reading experience and a lot of debate.

1. Tampa Bay Rays

Evan Longoria (3B), David Price (SP), Matt Moore (SP), Desmond Jennings (OF), James Shields (SP)

Prospect: Hak-Ju Lee (SS)

With a top-5 that is both very young and very balanced, the Rays have set themselves up beautifully for the foreseeable future. Price, Moore and Shields are as talented as any top-3 SP’s in baseball and the stability of Longoria’s performance along with the potential of Jennings gives them great value both offensively and defensively. Lee is their shortstop of the future–he has four above average tools (minus power) and the Korean import is still only 21 years old.

2. LA Angels

Albert Pujols (1B), Jered Weaver (SP), Mike Trout (OF), Dan Haren (SP), C.J. Wilson (SP)

Prospect: Jean Segura (2B/SS)

The Angels have one of the best CF prospects in recent memory in Mike Trout and, coupled with the re-signing of Jered Weaver and the free-agent signing of Albert Pujols, they have a top-3 in baseball that is tough to beat. The real key is how Pujols will hold up for the next 5 years–injuries concerns popped up last year, but if he can continue to match his production from 2008-2010, Pujols will continue to be the best hitter in baseball. Add in the steady Dan Haren and the newly signed C.J. Wilson, the Angels have an enviable pentagon of pillars to rely upon for years to come. Their top prospect, middle infielder Jean Segura, projects to have a ceiling similar to Elvis Andrus.

3. New York Yankees

Curtis Granderson (CF), C.C. Sabathia (SP), Michael Pineda (SP), Robinson Cano (2B), Alex Rodriguez (3B)

Prospect: Manny Banuelos (SP)

Despite cutting back their spending from George Steinbrenner levels, GM Brian Cashman has concentrated on improving the Yankees roster through smart free agent additions and stockpiling pitching prospects. Obviously, that didn’t stop them from getting Sabathia a few years ago, but even then, the Yankees overpaid for his services precisely because he was young and a pitcher. After Granderson’s breakout year (.262/.364/.552), the Yankees overcame drops in production from their previous big-3 of Jeter, A-Rod and Teixeira. Cano is the best 2nd baseman in baseball and Pineda has a ceiling of a #1 starter.

4. San Francisco Giants

Tim Lincecum (SP), Matt Cain (SP), Buster Posey (C), Madison Bumgarner (SP), Pablo Sandoval (3B)

Prospect: Gary Brown (OF)

The only thing that keeps the Giants from being higher on the list is the health of Buster Posey. Lincecum-Cain-Bumgarner is a top-3 that is unrivaled in terms of talent, experience and youth. Sandoval’s future depends on his weight management, but it has already been proven that he can be a middle-order slugger while playing above-average to great defense at the hot corner. They’ve already won 1 title with this core group and if they can muster enough offense from the rest of the pieces of their roster, they should have multiple chances to repeat the feat in the next 5 years.

5. Boston Red Sox

Kevin Youkilis (3B), Adrian Gonzalez (1B), Jon Lester (SP), Jacoby Ellsbury (CF), Dustin Pedroia (2B)

Prospect: Anthony Ranaudo (SP)

Yeah, they had one of the most infamous choke-jobs of all time in 2011 by failing to make the playoffs, but the development of Ellsbury really puts this group over the top. Lester is an ace, Gonzalez is a perfect fit for Fenway and Youkilis almost has no comparison in baseball due to his positional flexibility and quirky antics at the plate. Pedroia, playing the act of “The Little Engine That Could”, gives the team an intangible boost. Let’s hope there’s less beer and fried chicken in the clubhouse, which should result in more champagne being popped.

6. Detroit Tigers

Prince Fielder (1B), Justin Verlander (SP), Miguel Cabrera (3B, but not for long), Austin Jackson (CF), Max Scherzer (SP)

Prospect: Jacob Turner (SP)

The Tigers won the annual “Best Offseason” award due to their flashy signing of Prince Fielder for an ungodly amount of money, and it set them up to be favorites in the weak AL Central at least for the next couple of years. Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball and the Fielder/Cabrera combo in the middle of the order is rivaled only by Tulowitzki/Gonzalez in Colorado. There is absolutely no way that Cabrera sticks at 3B, but even the loss in positional value barely puts a dent in his overall value because of his production at the plate. They are not higher on this list because their 4 and 5 guys, Jackson and Scherzer, are a mixed-bag: both have immense potential and have yet to fulfill it completely. If either of them does, this team moves into the upper echelon.

———-

I should take a break here to say that the above teams (1-6) constitute the first tier in this list. Teams above this point separate themselves from the rest of the pack due to the age, positions and balance of their star players. There is a sizeable dropoff (relatively) from 6 to 7.

———-

7. Atlanta Braves

Tim Hudson (SP), Tommy Hanson (SP), Jason Heyward (OF), Bryan McCann (C), Mike Minor (SP)

Prospect: Julio Teheran (SP)

The Braves are the first team on the list to get a major bump due to their top prospect, Julio Teheran. He is widely regarded as a top-5 prospect in all of baseball and his arrival time is somewhere within the next 6 to 18 months. Their current players aren’t too shabby either, led by the #1 prospect of two years ago, Jason Heyward. Even though he’s been plagued by injuries and, to a certain extent, strikeouts, Heyward still has the potential to be the premier power hitter in baseball next to Mike Stanton. McCann is the best catcher in baseball and his prowess handing a very talented pitching staff, lead by Hudson and Hanson, often goes unnoticed. With the addition of Minor, a talented rookie, and Teheran still to come, this rotation could be the best in the majors for the next 5 years.

8. Miami Marlins

Hanley Ramirez (3B), Jose Reyes (SS), Josh Johnson (SP), Mike Stanton (OF), Gaby Sanchez (1B)

Prospect: Christian Yelich (1B/OF)

One of the more interesting teams on the list, mostly because of their boom-or-bust potential. The possibility of a bust arises from Josh Johnson’s recent arm troubles and the whole Hanley Ramirez/Jose Reyes dynamic (one is coming off of a career year, one off of a dismal one) because neither of them have been known for their consistency. However, if this group collectively figures out how to play at a more consistent level, they have a chance to  overtake the mighty Phillies and Braves in the NL East. Watching Mike Stanton hammer the ball is awe-inspiring and Gaby Sanchez came through as a surprise two years ago and continues to flash 20 HR power and above-average patience at the plate.

9. Philadelphia Phillies

Roy Halladay (SP), Cliff Lee (SP), Cole Hamels (SP), Chase Utley (2B), Shane Victorino (CF)

Prospect: Trevor May (SP)

The Phillies championship window is closing mighty fast. Ryan Howard will miss a huge chunk of the season due to his achilles injury and the duo of Halladay and Lee, powerful as they are, will be entering their mid-30′s quickly. Both Utley and Victorino have been bitten by the injury bug in the last two years, as well. However, at least for the next couple of years, they will continue to be favored in their division and will remain favorites for the World Series because of their pitching. Roy Halladay has somehow been better than advertised in the NL and the lefty combination of Lee and Hamels are just marginally behind Doc, giving the Phillies the kind of rotation that plays very well in any playoff series. If Utley and Victorino can replicate some of their peak years, this team will be in the playoffs for the majority of the next half-decade.

10. Washington Nationals

Stephen Strasburg (SP), Ryan Zimmerman (3B), Jordan Zimmerman (SP), Gio Gonzalez (SP), Michael Morse (OF)

Prospect: Bryce Harper (OF)

Now, here comes the first team that requires a good deal of projection in order to evaluate their future prospects. They are yet another team that has quite a trio of starters brewing if Strasburg can come back healthy. Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman, while not top-of-the-rotation material, are both above average #2 and #3 starters. Ryan Zimmerman’s value, both with the glove and the bat, lies in his consistency and Morse’s play last year (.303/.360/.550) was truly a shock to most people. The real value here comes from how quickly Strasburg and uber-prospect Bryce Harper can realize their astronomical ceilings.

 11. Texas Rangers

Josh Hamilton (OF), Ian Kinsler (2B), Nelson Cruz (OF), Elvis Andrus (SS), Adrian Beltre (3B)

Prospect: Yu Darvish (SP)

It is perhaps surprising that a team that reached the World Series for 2 years in a row would find itself outside of the top-10 in a list like this, but the explanation comes down to one word: pitching. They’ve lost Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson in consecutive offseasons and the signing of NBP product Yu Darvish has plenty of question marks hovering over it. On the offensive side, however, this team is as power-packed as any. All of their top-5 are hitters and they all rate amongst the best in the majors at their positions, but only Andrus has any projection left in him. Beltre, Hamilton, Kinsler and Cruz have already reached their offensive peaks and, talented as they are, it would be unwise to assume that they stay at their peak for the next 5 years.

12. Arizona Diamondbacks

Justin Upton (OF), Trevor Cahill (SP), Stephen Drew (SS), Miguel Montero (C), Daniel Hudson (SP)

Prospect: Trevor Bauer (SP)

This is the one team currently outside of the top-10 that has the chance to climb into the top-6. Each one of the 5 players on the list, it can be argued, has not reached their peak level of performance yet. Justin Upton is the most developed of the bunch and the newly acquired Trevor Cahill has the opportunity to team with Daniel Hudson at the top of the rotation for years to come. Both pitchers flash above-average stuff and show the ability to limit HR’s allowed–a key to pitching in the arid climate of AZ. Drew and Montero have plenty of offensive potential still left, but they both bring good defensive performance with them while occupying middle-of-the-field positions. UCLA product Trevor Bauer has the chance to join the rotation by mid-year or perhaps develop in the bullpen as a late-inning reliever from opening day.

13. St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Holliday (OF), Chris Carpenter (SP), Adam Wainwright (SP), Jaime Garcia (SP), Yadier Molina (C)

Prospect: Shelby Miller (SP)

As much as being reigning World Series champs gives this team a bump, losing Pujols hurts a lot. It puts a lot of pressure on Matt Holliday, and his 9-figure contract, to carry the offense from here on forward. Carpenter and Wainwright are major assets at the top of any rotation, but there are major health questions about both of them. Jaime Garcia regressed significantly from his breakout rookie season and his performance is key because he is the only current above-average left-handed SP the Cardinals have. Yadier Molina remains one of the most underrated players in baseball due to his superb defense and clutch hitting ability (.292 last year with 2 outs and RISP).

14. Cleveland Indians

Carlos Santana (C), Asdrubal Cabrera (SS), Shin-Soo Coo (OF), Ubaldo Jimenez (SP), Lonnie Chisenhall (3B)

Prospect: Francisco Lindor (SS)

The Indians have graduated a ton of players from their minor league system up to the major league club and this solid ranking is more of a projection of what they will do in 2015 or 2016 rather than the next 2-3 years. They bought Jimenez from the Rockies while his value was relatively low and absolutely stole Carlos Santana from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake deal. The real question marks on this list are Asdrubal Cabrera, who needs to keep up his breakout level of production from a year ago and Shin-Soo Choo, who is coming off of an injury. Chisenhall has a chance to be a left-handed version of Ryan Zimmerman at the plate while holding down the hot-corner for years to come.

15. Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Bautista (OF), Ricky Romero (SP), Brett Lawrie (3B), Colby Rasmus (CF), Travis d’Arnaud (C)

Prospect: Drew Hutchinson (SP)

Alex Anthopolous has done an amazing job in just over a year as the Blue Jays GM–he nabbed Lawrie from the Brewers and Rasmus from the Cardinals while locking up Bautista on a 2-year deal before the start of last season. Even though they play in the toughest division in baseball–the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox all make the top-5 of this list–the Blue Jays aren’t all that far away from contention. Travis d’Arnaud should be a hitting machine behind the plate and some development from guys like Romero, Rasmus and Lawrie should jettison this team into the 90-win range in the next few years.

16. Milwaukee Brewers

Ryan Braun (OF), Aramis Ramirez (3B), Zach Grienke (SP), Yovani Gallardo (SP), Shawn Marcum (SP)

Prospect: Wily Peralta (SP)

On paper, this seems to be a really good top-5 because of its relative youth and balance. However, there are a lot of concerns about how good the trio of starters really is. Grienke tailed off last year after his breakout 2010 campaign and Marcum seems to be more of a solid #2 starter rather than a #1. Add in the calamity of Braun’s positive PED test and an aging Aramis Ramirez, this group could either live up to its potential or go downhill quickly–there isn’t really a middle ground.

17. Los Angeles Dodgers

Matt Kemp (CF), Andre Ethier (OF), Clayton Kershaw (SP), Chad Billingsley (SP), Kenley Jansen (CP)

Prospect: Zach Lee (SP)

5 or 6 years ago, the Dodgers may have been on the top of this list. They already had Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal, Russell Martin, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley and Derek Lowe on the roster, with Matt Kemp still to come. A combination of injuries, bad free-agent signings (Jason Schmidt) and floundering prospects left them with just mediocre success thereafter. Right now however, they have arguably the best pitcher and the best hitter in the NL, Kershaw and Kemp, respectively. They paid a whopping $5.25 million signing bonus for Zach Lee in order to sign him away from a football commitment to LSU. The trajectory of this team will depend on whether Ethier can regain his all-star status and if Billingsley can go from being consistently good to consistently great.

18. Cincinnati Reds

Joey Votto (1B), Brandon Phillips (2B), Mat Latos (SP), Drew Stubbs (CF), Zach Cosart (SS)

Prospect: Devin Mesoraco (C)

The Reds have done a tremendous job developing hitting talent in the last decade–Phillips, Votto, Stubbs, Jay Bruce, Ryan Hanigan and others have all been groomed within their system. Zach Cosart and the highly touted Devin Mesoraco should continue that trend. The issue with the Reds upper-echelon talent is that it lacks pitching. The success of this group will depend on the development of Mat Latos–the edgy and fiercely competitive former Padre that took a big step back in his sophomore year.

And that’s about it. I’m choosing to end my detailed rankings here because after this point there’s a pretty much even mixture of two types of teams: those with aging or injured veterans looking to regain their prior form and those with talented, but unpredictable, young players that have yet to perennially prove themselves at the major league level.

From this point forward, these teams exemplify baseball’s rebuilding projects. Or perhaps they should be termed more of burn-the-whole-thing-down then rebuild situations. In either case, the teams that follow have less than a sliver of hope of contending for the World Series anytime soon.

19. Kansas City Royals (Hosmer, Moustakas, Soria, Duffy, Butler, P: Montgomery)

20. Colorado Rockies (Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, Chacin, Guthrie, Cuddyer, P: Pomeranz)

21. Seattle Mariners (Hernandez, Suzuki, Montero, Ackley, Smoak, P: Hultzen)

22. Chicago Cubs (Castro, Garza, Soto, Marmol, Dempster, P: Jackson)

23. Baltimore (Wieters, Britton, Markakis, Jones, Machado, P: Bundy)

24. Pittsburgh Orioles(McCutchen, Alvarez, Tabata, Walker, Bedard, P: Cole)

25. New York Mets (Wright, Bay, Davis, Santana, Niese, P: Wheeler)

26. Minnesota Twins (Mauer, Revere, Liriano, Span, Morneau, P: Sano)

27. White Sox (Danks, Beckham, Ramirez, Viciedo, Sale, P: Reed)

28. Oakland (Braden, Suzuki, Reddick, Weeks, Crisp, P: Parker)

29. San Diego Padres (Maybin, Leubke, Alonso, Hundley, Quentin, P: Kelly)

30. Houston Astros (Myers, Rodriguez, Lowrie, Lyles, Singleton, P: Cosart)

Phew.

After all that, here’s the catch (and the reason why we love baseball): the top 5 players on any team will only be able to take their squads so far. It’s the Edgar Renteria’s and David Freese’s of the world that will decide whether team #4 or team #12 on this list will win a title. Hey, Joe Nobody from Nowhere, you’ll need to help these guys out.

Jaymin

The life of a pitcher is a hard life. From the moment they release the ball, they also release control over the eventual outcome of that pitch. Who knows, Yuniesky Betancourt could be playing shortstop, Mike Napoli might be catching and Chris Coghlan could be playing center field. The wind could be blowing out 20 MPH in Wrigley Field, or there could be a fence just 315 feet away in left field in Houston. So what if the hitter smacks a line drive towards the middle that 29 out of 30 shortstops in the league could get to, but your shortstop is the only one who can’t? What if the hitter hits a dribbler in front of the plate and your un-athletic brick-wall of a catcher can’t go out and field it? Your ERA goes up.

So the conundrum for baseball nerds is to try and figure out how to truly measure the performance of a pitcher while staying independent from aspects the pitcher can’t control–like how his team fields the ball behind him. It turns out that one baseball nerd, Dave Studeman from Hardball Times, actually figured it out. He took the three outcomes that a pitcher has direct control over (HR, walk or hit by pitch and strikeout) and plugged those into a formula to come up with an “ERA-like” number that reflects the true performance of a pitcher. The formula adjusts for the relative values of giving up a HR vs. walking a batter. It is now commonly referred to as FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching. In terms of measurement, it acts the same as ERA: the higher your FIP, the worse you have pitched. It has been shown to be a better predictor of future performance than ERA.

For example, let’s assume that Pitcher A and Pitcher B have an ERA of 4.50. But if Pitcher A has a FIP of 3.5 while Pitcher B has a FIP of 4.4, then it is safe to assume that Pitcher A is a better player because he has allowed less HR’s, walks/HBP’s and struck out more batters per inning than Pitcher B has.

So, in analytic terms, if a pitcher has a FIP that is much lower than his ERA, it is a sign that he has suffered from poor defense behind him, leading to an inflation of his ERA. This is not true in all cases because some pitchers just give up more “hard-hit” balls than others do, but nevertheless this is the premise I will use to compile a list of pitchers that, given the difference between their ERA and FIP, are poised to have “bounce-back” or “breakout” years in 2012.

[Side note: I will only be using pitchers who had an ERA over 4.00 for 2011]

Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays SP

ERA: 4.72     FIP: 3.64     Differential: -1.08

Brandon Morrow is the prototypical power pitcher with a plus fastball and power curveball. The combination leaves his more susceptible to giving up HR’s than the average pitcher because of the nature of his pitching style (he had a 1.05 HR/9 innings in 2011), but he’s still only 27 years old and has logged just over 500 innings in the majors. The AL East is always a tough division to pitch in, but the pitchers who usually do well are power arms and Morrow’s stats could take a major jump if the fielding behind him is better.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians SP

ERA: 4.68     FIP: 3.71     Differential: -.97

Jimenez’s stats took a serious plunge after his breakout 2010 campaign, where he posted a 2.88 ERA over 220+ innings with an outstanding 8.7 K/9 innings, given his sinkerball repertoire. Jimenez combines his sinker with a suprisingly effective curveball and slider combination that you rarely see out of pitchers that rely on a sinking fastball. Spending a full year in Cleveland with the likes of Carlos Santana behind the plate, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis and Grady Sizemore up the middle and Shin-Soo Choo in RF, Jimenez should look forward to a bounceback year, even though he is moving to the American League.

Jonathan Niese, Mets SP

ERA: 4.40     FIP: 3.36     Differential: -1.04

Niese is a lot less sexy than the two guys above him. He relies on control of his fastball to succeed and in 2011 he seemed to get away from his fastball/changeup combination to rely more heavily on his slider. He has progressed over his career by lowering his walk rate from a whopping 11.6% in 2008 to 6.3% in 2011 and it seems the Mets are moving towards a rebuilding process as a team, which might provide Niese with younger, more athletic defenders behind him. Still only 25 years old, Niese seems to have his best days in front of him.

Chad Billingsley, Dodgers SP

ERA: 4.21     FIP: 3.83     Differential: -.38

Billingsley’s differential is not as high as the other pitchers on this list, but 2011 was a very uncharacteristic year for him. He struggled with his command, as he struck out less batters and walked more, but I think he has a shot to recover his previous form due to the addition of Mark Ellis at 2B and having Juan Uribe be the full-time 3B (assuming he can still hit). By being in the shadow of stud Clayton Kershaw, Billingsley’s value often gets overlooked, but he remains a steady, reliable arm that is attached to a big frame.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants SP

ERA: 3.21     FIP: 2.67     Differential: -.54

Okay, so I’m going to break my own rule and include a pitcher whose ERA was lower than 4.00. Much lower. Some call Madison Bumgarner the Sandy Koufax of our generation: a left-hander with a low release and pinpoint control who won’t “wow” you with stuff, but is still an ace nevertheless. Bumgarner saw a great uptick in his strikeout rate, going from 18.2% in 2010 to 22.6% in 2011, and he pitches in a great park for left-handed fly-ball pitchers. Given his age, recent progression and the addition of Brandon Crawford at SS, Brandon Belt at 1B and Buster Posey back behind the plate, I could see Bumgarner’s stats taking a major step forward in 2012. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was in consideration for the Cy Young award at the end of the season.

Dallas, Texas was the center of the baseball universe over the last 3 days. The Marlins stole the show, the Yankees were conspicuously absent, the Angels swooped in on Pujols and the flurry of activity instigated a twitter tsunami. Through it all, some teams came out of the storm renewed and revolutionized and some teams came out looking disoriented and foolish.

Angels

Arty Moreno deserves a lot of credit for being willing to shell out over a quarter of a billion dollars for one of the best players in baseball. In a 3 hour span Thursday morning, the Angels signed the best hitter on the market to a 10 year $254 million deal and the best pitcher on the market (C.J. Wilson) to a 5 year $77.5 million deal. By coupling the position player-pitcher duo of Pujols and Wilson with Jered Weaver and Mike Trout, both of whom are younger than their counterparts, the Angels have a quartet of current/future stars that will carry them for the next 5 years. As far as the contracts themselves go, Wilson’s deal carries less risk because he is younger than Pujols and his deal is shorter. The Pujols contract will almost certainly come back like a vicious boomerang to hamstring the Angels 5-7 years from now because Pujols will be in his decline years while still being paid like he’s 26. But that’s the price you pay when you dabble in the free agent market and I’m sure no one will complain about years 7-10 of the contract if the first few years bring along a few parades and ring ceremonies with them. By signing Pujols, they effectively stuck it to their cross-town rival Dodgers and by signing Wilson they took away the best pitcher that the Rangers, their division rival, had. In 3 hours, they went from “in contention” to “favorite” and that’s all that matters for now.

Marlins

Miami Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria always said that he wanted to emulate the late George Steinbrenner. Well, he’s off to a good start. The Marlins struck early by giving SS Jose Reyes a 6 year $106 million deal that is heavily backloaded to pay Reyes more in the final years of his deal. They also signed closer Heath Bell to a 3 year $36 million deal before the meetings and the deal was also rumored to be heavily backloaded At the time, I thought that this allows the Marlins to accrue some revenue from their new stadium for a few years before they really open up their checkbook. Well, they did wait a while before they did that–about 12 hours. The next day, they re-united their new manager Ozzie Guillen with his old workhorse in Chicago, Mark Beuhrle (4 years, $58 million). They were even considered the front-runners to land Pujols and Wilson before they chose the Angels. The problem that the Marlins face now is that, while they have shed their label of “small-market team”, they now are thoroughly entrenched in baseball’s middle-ground along with teams like the Cubs and Dodgers. All of these teams have spent enough money in the free agent market to secure a few prize names, but the overall talent on their rosters falls short of championship caliber. Without a few breakout seasons from players like Logan Morrison, Anibal Sanchez and others, the Marlins are looking at a ceiling of a 2nd or 3rd place finish in their own division.

Mets

They basically cornered the above-average right-handed relief pitcher market in 24 hours by signing Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco and trading for Ramon Ramirez. The loss of Jose Reyes and the mid-season trade of Carlos Beltran leaves this team in full rebuilding mode and their situation will bear close watching throughout the season because David Wright, their star third baseman, could also be made available. The Mets doomed themselves into mediocrity when they signed Johan Santana and Beltran, but both were hobbled by injuries during most of their tenures with the team. Now, the Mets are hanging onto Santana and hoping that he will be healthy enough to have some midseason trade value and they already shipped Beltran out of town. The next step for this franchise should be to start putting the little pieces of their roster together in order to rebuild organizational depth. Trading Wright won’t be a popular move, but by the time the Mets reshape themselves into contention again, Wright will most likely be gone anyways. Until prospects like Zach Wheeler, Jenrry Mejia and Brandon Nimmo develop, Mets fans have a lot of cellar-dwelling to look forward to.

Cardinals

If you had to point out a team that was a “loser” during the meetings, the Cardinals are the clear choice. They lost a once-in-a-generation player. Their fans have to cut the emotional attachment they had to Pujols and watch him set batting records with the Angels. However, it could be argued that the Cardinals are actually better off in the long term without having Pujols’ contract on the books. The bad news in the short-term is that their roster, as constructed, is not good enough to overcome the loss of a middle-of-the-order bat. Adam Wainwright now becomes their best player, but after that the roster is sprinkled with names like John Jay, Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter and Jason Motte–players in the middle/latter stages of their career who simply are not elite. Mike Matheny, newly hired and minty fresh, will have quite a job on his hands trying to move on without Fat Albert.

Prince Fielder

Fielder is younger than Albert Pujols and has comparable offensive statistics and capabilities. He’s also huge (no, really, do a Google Image search) and figures to have to move to DH later on in his career. That being said, being the Scott Boras client he is, Fielder will get a 5-7 year contract at $20 million per from somebody. Now, who could that somebody be? He could always land back in Milwaukee, but the Cubs and Marlins also have shown interest. The best bet right now is that the Cubs stepping up with a strong offer, but, with Boras, he always stirs up interest where there shouldn’t be any at all.

In the end, the winter meetings was every bit the Twitter-fueling fiasco that MLB wanted it to be and it garnered interest from even the casual fan because of the big names involved. People in Los Angeles of Anaheim Next to Disneyland (yes, jokes about the name are getting old, but there’s no statute of limitations) are elated. People in St. Louis are gutted. In March, when opening day rolls around, it won’t matter where you are from or what your team did during the winter meetings, because baseball is baseball and you’re going to watch. Even if your team is the Mets.

Major League Baseball always dreads the World Series ratings. Unless the Yankees or Red Sox are in it of course. Even with the two, the past few postseasons have been forgettable, and this year’s was on pace to a decent yet unremarkable end. Then insanity happened. Much like the end of the regular season, the end of the Series has seen drama unlike anything since the Red Sox in 1975, or the Twins with Kirby Puckett. And boy has baseball needed this. The World Series doesn’t have to compete with the NBA this October, and the biggest opposition has been the weather, which has already factored into the postseason numerous times. But then baseball got a lift.

The funny thing is that the game last night was terrible. At a few points it looked more like the Little League World Series then one between athletes paid millions of dollars to catch a baseball. Largely in part because neither team was doing that particularly well. Cardinals’ left fielder and their outfield “oops” highlight reel machine, Matt Holiday, miscommunicated on a shallow fly ball with shortstop Rafael Furcal and had it fall out of his glove. Third baseman David Freese had a routine popup pop out of his glove. And both errors were followed by extra base hits giving Texas the edge. But it wasn’t Texas’ night either. Gold glove third baseman turned first baseman, Michael Young, mishandled routine plays twice, and Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre both missed key defensive plays letting the Cardinals somehow beyond reason to stay in a game they should have had no business playing in. They couldn’t hit, they couldn’t field, and their pitching was becoming unraveled.

The only offense mustered by the Cards came from their MVP of the Series, Lance Berkman. He hit a two run homerun, but the offense dried up everywhere else. Their next two runs came from a groundout and a bases loaded walk when Texas’ bullpen began to come undone as bad as the Cardinals’. Meanwhile, the Rangers were tattooing the ball all over the place. Yet for some reason they couldn’t hold down a lead to save their lives. They couldn’t expand on their lead either after their offense began to stall and for the game they left 12 men in scoring position. But despite the Rangers’ own stumbling they led seven to four in the eighth inning after the Cardinals handed them the lead over and over again.

But Texas kept giving St. Louis chances. And the Cardinals kept blowing those chances. Following a solo homerun by Allen Craig bringing St. Louis to within two of the Rangers the bases were loaded for Rafael Furcal…who then proceeded to ground out feebly. And that appeared to be the end of that. But then the sloppiest sorry excuse of a baseball game ever turned into history.

The ninth inning looked like it could be difficult for the Rangers. They had to go through Albert Pujols and Berkman. Berkman had been tearing the Rangers apart, having the highest average of all the hitters in the Series and Pujols, despite not having a single base hit outside of one game, is still Albert Pujols. It was a tough reminder as he ripped a double off of Texas’ all-star closer Neftali Feliz. Berkman walked, and then Craig struck out. That brought David Freese back in, Freese who botched one of the easiest plays to make in baseball just an hour earlier. The Rangers were literally one strike away except that Freese lifted a hit to deep right and Texas right fielder Nelson Cruz got a bad read on it, and the ball clanged off the wall. Beyond all reason, somehow St. Louis tied the game. Texas couldn’t put them away and poor defense let St. Louis back in. it was ugly. It was sloppy. It was embarrassing. It was also the most exciting World Series game in a long time.

The Cardinals however decided to keep up their trend of letting Texas lead them as Josh Hamilton crushed a two run homerun getting a two run lead in the tenth. Still, Texas seemed dead set on proving their bullpen was going to blow the game. They allowed two hits to lead off the bottom half, letting the Cardinals again sneak back in. Instead of facing the pitcher’s spot in the batting order with two out and no one on, or even one out and one on there were no outs and two on. The Rangers could only watch as Kyle Lohse, a pinch hitting pitcher, only brought in because the Cards had no other position players to hit in the pitcher’s spot, bunted over the runners. And the Rangers’ bullpen for the second time missed a World Series title by one strike as Berkman struck again, tying the game once more.

The Rangers seemed defeated by the time they got up to hit for the eleventh inning. They couldn’t keep their horrendous play slightly better than the Cardinals’ awful performance, where St. Louis’ only strong play seemed to come when they should have been dead to rights. David Freese, the goat turned hero then became hero turned legend with a leadoff homerun in the bottom of the eleventh.

It was a game just like the beginning of “A Tale of Two Cities” with the best of times and the worst of times. It was the worst of baseball and the best of baseball. A sport that has seen its popularity dwindle that was watching another rather forgettable World Series, in an elimination game that was absolutely pathetic, only to have the sport prove again this Fall why it is still a spectacle. Two collapses by two historic franchises in September, a remarkable run up by St. Louis and Tampa, and now one of those teams turned the most horrid World Series game into the most remarkable, dramatic World Series game seen in years. Baseball can only hope that game seven is as bad.

Going into this season, neither the Brewers nor Diamondbacks were projected to make the playoffs. And for parts of the season neither team was on pace to. The NL West had Colorado, San Francisco and then Arizona take position as the leader, while in the Central division Cincinnati and even Pittsburgh had the top spot until Milwaukee took over. In the end, both teams ran away with their divisions as the rest of their division faltered down the stretch or were so far buried it wasn’t close.

Starting Pitching: The Diamondbacks have hardly any names that jump out at you. The majority of them aren’t even recognizable. Those who were known struggled as Armando Galarraga, Jason Marquis, and Zach Duke couldn’t hold down a job. But they got some big help from surprising Daniel Hudson and Josh Collmenter, and a stunning year out of former Yankee prospect, Ian Kennedy. Kennedy shared the lead in the NL with 21 wins, along with a sharp 2.88 ERA. The Brewers’ staff has more pronounced names, but none that has blown opposing batters away like Kennedy. Yovani Gallardo, Shawn Marcum, and Randy Wolf all had solid years and give Milwaukee a top to bottom solid rotation. Zach Greinke didn’t quite regain his Cy Young year form, but when he was on he was close to unhittable. Grienke led all starters in strikeouts through nine innings, with over 10.5, putting to shame most closers in the league even. Both teams have solid pitching, and it all comes down to consistency out of the Brewers staff. Arizona though has the inherent edge just with Kennedy pitching as well as he has. Edge – Diamondbacks

Bullpen: Not too take too much away from the Diamondbacks’ relief group, who are a very solid bunch of relievers, but the Brewers may have one the most overlooked bullpens in the league. Arizona’s closer, J.J. Putz, has been incredible saving 45 out of 49 games to the tune of a 2.17 ERA, but Milwaukee’s John Axford has been even better. 46 out of 48 saves, 1.95 ERA, and 86 strikeouts, all the while looking dominant and poised beyond his years. The kid has been unreal for the Brewers. And while Arizona has two good additional arms with David Hernandez and lefty Joe Paterson, Milwaukee has a cast of pitchers who have been closers and could be closers on a lot of teams. Kameron Loe, LaTroy Hawkins, Francisco Rodriguez, and Takashi Saito not only give Milwaukee more depth but also more experience. Very clear who has the upper hand here, though don’t expect a lot runs being given up by either bullpen. Edge – Brewers

Offense: Arizona only had one guy on their team hit over .300, that being Aaron Hill, but had five of their guys hit over ten homeruns, with Justin Upton leading the offensive charge with 31 and a .289 average. However, the Brewers have a behemoth offense that was good enough to overpower the Cardinals and Reds this year, and are arguably the best in the National League. Ryan Braun had an MVP quality year with 33 bombs, a .332 average, and a rather surprising 33 stolen bags on top of that. Prince Fielder further makes the middle of the order terrifying with 38 dingers of his own and a .299 average. Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, and Yuniesky Betancourt provide plenty of pop of their own, making sure there isn’t a tough out for the D’backs’ ptichers. Arizona though has a few big advantages, that being speed and defense. The Diamondbacks’ defense was rock solid versus a rather pedestrian Brewers’ defense, and overall as a team they are a lot faster. But unless there is a power outage in Milwaukee, Arizona is overmatched here. Edge – Brewers

Managers: Kirk Gibson took over late last season for Arizona and he has molded his group into a dynamic team that capitalizes when they can, are aggressive, and have a solid pitching group. Ron Roenicke is another one of the Mike Scioscia assistants that has taken off, similar to Joe Maddon of Tampa Bay and Bud Black in San Diego. Roenicke in his first year turned the Brewers from an overlooked team going into the regular season into a team that is geared for a deep run in the postseason…that’s still overlooked. Both should be candidates for manager of the year out of the National League, but seeing on paper how many weapons Milwaukee has in comparison to Arizona, Gibson has made diamonds out of coal in record time. Roenicke has the knowledge from his years with Scioscia and the Angels, so don’t count him out in this matchup, but Gibson is a magician seemingly. A very intimidating, wily, magician. Edge – Arizona

Prediction: Arizona did finish with a better record than Milwaukee, and do get home field advantage for their series, but Milwaukee just has more depth and talent than I think the Diamondbacks can keep up with. Arizona did have the benefit of a very mediocre NL West to compete against, but despite strong pitching the Brewers offense is going to be too much with their pitching staff loaded as well. The Diamondbacks’ best bet is going to be small ball, scraping together runs. That is all moot with Braun and Fielder jacking homeruns in the warm Arizona climate. Brewers 3-1

While everybody was going crazy over the Red Sox meltdown in September, the Atlanta Braves were slipping in the NL. Or should I say, they slipped. They went 8-18 in September and lost their last 5 games. While all eyes were on the Red Sox and Rays last night, the St. Louis Cardinals clinched the NL wildcard spot in a less dramatic finish (although Atlanta did take their game all the way into the 13th inning before losing). Oh by the way, the team that the Braves lost their last three games to were…the Phillies. Somewhat doesn’t make sense. The Phillies seemed to be having their way with the Braves in that series, so why not set it up so that you face them in the NLDS? Either way the Phillies now get to face the Cardinals.

Starting Pitching – I’m going to keep this simple and sweet. The Cardinals have a pretty good rotation, especially seeing they have been missing Adam Wainwright for the whole season (plus Chris Carpenter threw a gem last night) but the other team is STACKED! One of biggest sports stories of the offseason was the pickup of Cliff Lee. The Phillies’ rotation has Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt…whaaat. Please, no contest here. Edge – Phillies.

Bullpen – The Phillies have an all-star starting rotation but their pitching in general is just solid. Their team ERA is 3.02, best in the majors, and they also boast the the best WHIP at 1.17. Cardinal, on the other hand, fall in the middle of the pack pitching wise. The Cardinals also have a dicey closer situation. They have been rotating pitchers in this position all season while the Phillies have a steady Ryan Madson, who earned 32 saves with an ERA of 2.37. Edge – Phillies. 

Offense – I would say that the Cardinals have a little more power in their lineup with Pujos, Berkman and Holliday, and team wise, they rock the Phillies in almost every stat line. Phillies’ pick up of Hunter Pence before the deadline was a solid addition to this lineup, but the most important thing about the Phillies lineup is that they’ve all been there and done it. Matter of fact, both squads have some very savvy veterans that know what it takes to win. Edge – Cardinals. 

Coaching – This a tough one. Charlie Manuel, year after year, has his team ready to compete and has helped coach a team that is a threat to win it every single year.  Tony La Russa has gotten his team into the playoffs after the huge setback of losing Wainwright and the whole Pujos contract situation. Both managers have won the World Series before (Manuel once and La Russa twice) therefore are well prepared to get their team there again. Edge – Tie.

Prediction – The Cardinals have been very good in September and may be hitting the playoffs in stride but this Phillies team was made to make the World Series and I am not sure how anyone could bet against them. Phillies 3-1. 

Detroit is back into the postseason led by AL Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander. The Tigers are on a roll going 38-16 since August and they’re matched up with the powerhouse Yankees. I’m sure the Tigers would have much rather played the Rays, but were beat out for that by the Rangers. In baseball, momentum goes a long way with a 162 game season, and the Tigers are peaking at the right time. The Yankees have the best lineup in baseball with no breaks 1-9. This should be a great series to watch. Let’s break it down.

Starting Pitching - Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia are arguably baseball’s 2 best pitchers, and we are in for a treat as fans to see them face off in Game 1. I think the Tigers will need Verlander to go 2 games this series to have a chance at winning it. However, the Tigers have Fister, Scherzer, and Porcello for Games 2, 3, and 4. The Yanks will go with Ivan Nova for Game 2, Freddy Garcia for Game 3, and hand it back to CC for Game 4. I think Verlander can beat CC each time, and the Tigers would be wise to start him more Game 4. Edge – Tigers

Bullpen - Both bullpens are lights out in the 8th and 9th. The Yankees bullpen also led the AL with a 3.12 ERA, whereas Detroit’s bullpen has a 3.93 ERA.  Both bullpens are lights out in the 8th and 9th. The Tigers closer Jose Valverde led the AL in saves with 52, while Mariano had was 2nd in the AL with 47. Although both closers are great, you have to go with the experience of Mariano and his ability to pitch in the spotlight of huge games. He’s done it his whole career. Edge – Yankees. 

Offense – Miguel Cabrera may be one of the best hitters in the Majors, but the Yankees are stacked from top to bottom. The Yankees simply score a lot of runs, with 6 players scoring 80+ runs. Detroit has shown they can put up their runs too though. Over their 7 matchups this season, the Tigers have outscored the Yankees 36-33.  Edge – Yankees.

Managing – Both Girardi and Leyland are great managers and have a lot of experience with their ball clubs. Not sure either team has an edge here. Edge – Tie.

Prediction – Starting pitching goes a long way in the playoffs, and Justin Verlander to me is the best pitcher in baseball. The Tigers have a respectable line up, and I think they can keep up with the Yanks. I like the Tigers as they are peaking at the right time. Tigers 3-2

After 162 grueling games, we finally have entered the MLB postseason. After the drama that unfolded at the Trop last night, the Rays have found themselves in the playoffs after being 9 games back entering into September. The Rays definitely caught fire going 17-9 in September and winning the last 5 in a row to bring a collapse to the Nation. The Rangers are back into the postseason after their World Series appearance last year. The Rangers won 6 more games than last year with a final total of 96. The Rangers had the playoff spot secured in mid September, but they kept playing hard to secure the home field advantage, which they will have against the Rays. Let’s break down the series and see who will come out on top.

Starting Pitching - The Rays have some questions coming into the postseason with starting pitching. The most likely Game 1 starter will be Jeff Neimann who has been rocked by the Rangers in his two starts against them with an 11.77 ERA.  The Rays will have their ace James Shield for Game 2 on regular rest, and will certainly need him again for Game 5 if they can force the series to that. David Price has been shaky all year to say the least, but they probably will have him open the series in Tampa Bay for Game 3.  Jeremy Hellickson (2.95 ERA) will be the 4th man in the rotation. He is young and will make his playoff debut against a great hitting Texas team. Without Cliff Lee, the Texas rotation is also young. It will be led by their new ace C.J. Wilson who is 16-7 on the year. Derrick Holland has also been solid in the second half of the season should get the start in Game 2. Matt Harrison should get the the third spot who has played well for the Rangers. All three of these pitchers are lefties. Edge – Rangers.

Bullpen - Tampa has rebuilt they’re bullpen and they have done very well. They lost 7 pitchers from their bullpen from their AL-East Division winning squad, but they have held their own. However, I still like Neftali Feliz set up by Mike Adams in Texas. Edge – Rangers

Offense – The Rangers are a offensive force to be reckoned with, and one of the best in the Majors. They had 5 guys who hit 25+ HR this year, while the Rays only had one in Evan Longoria. The Rays are the best in stealing bases, but I’ll take the long ball from the Rangers to carry them deep in the postseason again. The Rays have crafty hitters like Damon and Upton, but I don’t think it will be enough. I think having Adrian Beltre back in the lineup has given the Rangers offense the boost they needed, and they are clicking on all cylinders. Josh Hamilton is doing what he does best, and Mike Napoli is having a breakout season. Just too much offense from the Rangers.Edge – Rangers. 

Managing – Both Joe Maddon and Ron Washington have done well with their teams. Washington got his team to compete hard and got them back to the postseason, but Maddon led his team in September to charge into the playoffs. Edge – Rays

Prediction – As good of a story as Tampa has been in their journey to make it into the playoffs, I don’t think they are any match for the Rangers. The Rangers have a World Series or bust type attitude, and are stacked from top to bottom. Rangers 3-1

The Los Angles Angels of Anaheim are definitely on the outside looking in at the playoff picture, and seem to be looking further and further in the rear view mirror of the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox. Yesterday’s loss to the A’s basically summed up the season for the Angles and their inability to close out. The game entered the 9th inning with the Angels up 4-1 and ended with Jordan Walden blowing the save once again and the Angels losing. The loss leaves the Angels hoping for a miracle to make it to the playoffs. The Angels would need to sweep the Rangers, and both the Red Sox and Rays would have to be swept by the Orioles and the Yankees respectively. In other words, the Angels once again are missing the post season.

As a fan of the Angels, this has been sickening to watch all season. Every time the Angels get close to taking the lead in the AL West, or the Wildcard as of recently, they have some mishaps. The number that has seemed to crush the Angels is 2 games, whether it be 2 games back of the Rangers for the AL West or 2 games back of the Red Sox in the Wildcard. Once the Angels hit that mark, they have fallen apart. This has cost them a shot at the post season.

At first glance at yesterday’s game, Jordan Walden is the easy scapegoat. You have to be able to trust your closer to secure a 4-1 lead in the 9th in a game that you have to win. Sure he is a big part of the problem, but the real problem with the Angels is the front office. Arte Moreno has turned into a penny-pincher, and his team is showing the results of it on the field. I don’t understand the justification by Moreno’s money saving efforts either, the guys is only #385 on Forbes 400 list with a net worth of $1 billion. Not only that, the Angels have averaged 40,000+ in attendance since 2004. The Angels rank 5th in the MLB in attendance. Please put a team on the field that your fans deserve.

Quite frankly, it is a surprise that the Angels made it this far with the roster they had. A lot of the credit for the Angels success is due to their rookies Mike Trumbo and Peter Bourjos. Trumbo, who unfortunately broke his leg yesterday and is out for the year, is a lock for the Rookie of the Year, and Bourjos has a real shot at the Golden Glove in center field. If it wasn’t for the performance from these rookies, the roster the Angels put on the field never had a shot.

Tracing back to the off season, the Angels lost their ace John Lackey to the Red Sox because they simply were not ready to shell out the money for him. Lackey made the right move for his career, and maybe the Angels got lucky because Lackey has a 6.41 ERA this season. The Angels also missed the Carl Crawford sweepstakes because they simply were not ready to put out the money. They then became desperate and made a trade for Veron Wells out of Toronto for C Mike Napoli and OF Juan Rivera. The Angels picked up the 5 years, $86 million still owed to Wells! He had one of the worst contracts in baseball, and the Angels turned their heads and took him to make it look like they did something. He then went on to hit around .200 before this last month of the season, and became the worst regular starting outfielder in the history of baseball, and this is no exaggeration. Wells has been a complete fluke, and he is added to the list of players the Angels have overpaid for along with Gary Matthew Jr. and Scot Kazmir. The Angels have given huge contracts to guys that are way past their prime, and should really focus on younger players and their minor league system. The Angels are going nowhere if they continue to sign guys at the end of their careers like Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu.

Let’s even put the offseason to the side, because not many considers the Angels contenders before the season started. They eventually found themselves in the the hunt by the time the trade deadline came around though, and they chose to do absolutely nothing. They had three solid starters in Weaver, Haren, and Santana, but the bullpen was a struggle. A guy like Heath Bell certainly would have helped the Angels, and they could have gotten him for cheap as well. They chose to stick with Walden, who has now blown 10 saves with the debacle yesterday, which leads the majors in blown saves. Even if they were able to win half of those games, the Angels would be in the playoffs right now. The front office’s decision not to make a move cost them big time.

Finally, the Angels got very lucky in signing Jared Weaver to his 5-year, $85 million extension, because he certainly will be the Angels ace for the next few years. Weaver definitely gave the Angels a hometown discount, which some expert say was about $30 million. If Weaver decided to test the free agent market like his friend John Lackey, he definitely would have gotten a $100+ million contract from one of the big markets like New York or Boston. There would have been no way Arte Moreno would have shelled out money like that for the superstar because he simply is just that cheap.

The Angels have great starting pitching and have developed some great prospects, but they need a stronger bullpen and guys who can hit the long ball if they want to take down the Rangers in the AL West. Unfortunately Kendry Morales missed the entire season with his broken foot, and now Mike Trumbo is on that list too. Both guys are the only real power guys the Angels have on the roster. It is on the front office to make some moves this off season while they still have a good team in tact. Hopefully they don’t make the same blunders they have been making the last couple seasons, and we can get a real contender again in Anaheim. They have the cornerstone in the starting pitching, they just need to bring in some more pieces to complete the puzzle. I’m not saying the Angles need to spend New York or Boston style money, but they need to address their weaknesses. Mike Scoscia to me is the best manager in baseball, and if he is given the right pieces, he can make magic like he did in 2002.

With all that said, I suppose the Angels front office problems aren’t quite as bad as that other team across town.