Pardon My Bias

The NFL season is fast-approaching and that means fantasy football drafts are happening all across the country.  Here is a list of my top 50 fantasy players for the year. I have written why I feel the top 10 are deserving of their placement and what I expect them to accomplish this year. But before I get into that, here are some thoughts for fantasy football managers everywhere.

Rule 1: Do not waste a pick on a kicker until double digit rounds.  The best kicker in the league averages about 1 point more a game than the worst kicker in the league.  Not worth losing solid back up players to pick up a “tier 1″ kicker.

Rule 2: With the league becoming a passing league, it is essential to get a top 5 QB. This means you must do whatever you can to ensure that you get either Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, or Phillip Rivers.

Rule 3: Be wary of the sophmore slump.  Be careful with using a high pick on a player that has only had one great fantasy year.  Example: Last year, “experts” were extremely high on Matt Forte and Steve Slaton.  So high, that in mock drafts across the country experts were putting these two in the top 20 players in the draft (Forte was top 10). When weighing the option of picking a rookie versus a proven vet, the rookie might have more upside but the vet is the safe bet.

Rule 4: Don’t be afraid to take the chance on a sleeper pick as a viable backup to your starters.  Players like Justin Forsett, Alex Smith, and Justin Gage could be surprise players worth a pick late in the draft.

Rule 5: Get a top 5 tight end this year.  After the top 5 tight ends, the position lacks production.  So if you can get Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis, Brent Celek,  or Tony Gonzalez then do it.

Rule 6: Get a top 10 WR, it is extremely important to do this. The dropoff after the top 10 WRs is significant, in today’s NFL a reliable WR is a must.

Rule 7: Don’t get multiple players from one team.  If you end up with your top QB, RB, and WR from the same team, then you did not do your homework.

Without further adieu, here are my top 50 fantasy football players for the 2010 NFL season.

1. Chris Johnson – RB- Tennessee Titans

You can’t really lose with either Johnson or Peterson as the #1 overall pick.  But Johnson is coming off a 2,000 yard year and will be relied upon more than Peterson (due to a sub-par passing attack). And now that his contract situation has been worked out he can put his full focus on making defenses pay.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/08

2. Adrian Peterson- RB- Minnesota Vikings

With Chester Taylor gone, expect Peterson’s numbers to go up.  But if Favre comes back, expect the increase to be minimal to moderate. While I do expect Peterson to get about 1500 yards and 15-20 TDs, his fumble total continues to alarm me.

http://thevikingage.com/

3. Maurice Jones-Drew- RB- Jacksonville Jaguars

Dual threat RB that is going to hurt defenses no matter what they throw at him.

4. Ray Rice- RB- Baltimore Ravens

Another RB that can give opposition plenty of fits.  He had over 2,000 all-purpose yards and expect him to replicate that this year.  The only downside is him losing goal-line touches to Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain.

5. Frank Gore-RB- San Francisco 49ers

Gore has had 4 straight 1000 rushing yard seasons and his TD total has increased over the past 3.  With an improved offensive line, fantasy owners should expect that trend to continue. Also with an improved aerial attack, the load on Gore should be decreased. Expect Gore’s receiving stats to increase this year as well.

http://www.nflgridirongab.com

6. Andre Johnson- WR- Houston Texans

When playing all 16 games, Johnson has gotten 1000+ yards 5 out of 6 years and 100+ receptions in 3 of the last 4 years.  He has been the one of the most consistent receiver over the years. I expect him to improve and get double digit TDs for the first time in his career.

7. Michael Turner- RB- Atlanta Falcons

After an injury hampered him last year, expect Turner to return close to 2008 form. Burner Turner should get around 1300 TDs and about 12-14 TDs.

8. Steven Jackson- RB- St. Louis Rams

Despite being constantly banged up, Jackson has had 5 straight 1000+ yards.  He will continue to be the workhorse for a putrid Rams offense.  The only thing holding Jackson back is his TD total.

9. Drew Brees- QB- New Orleans Saints

Coming off a career high QB rating, Brees looks to lead his team to another Super Bowl.  His accuracy and deep ball ability allow him to get high yardage and low INT totals.  With his ability to spread the ball, Brees continues to torch defensive secondaries. Expect Brees to have another 4000+ yard total, 30-35 TDs, and less than 13 INTs.

http://www.midwestsportsfans.com

10. Randy Moss- WR- New England Patriots

When Randy Moss is a beast when healthy. Last year after seperating his shoulder, he went on to average 90 yds and 1 TD a game in the final 10 weeks of the season. That’s all I have to say.

11. Aaron Rodgers- QB- Green Bay Packers

12. Larry Fitzgerald- WR- Arizona Cardinals

13. DeAngelo Williams- RB- Carolina Panthers

14.  Calvin Johnson- WR- Detroit Lions

15. Reggie Wayne- WR- Indianapolis Colts

16. Rashard Mendenhall- RB- Pittsburgh Steelers

17. Brandon Marshall- WR- Miami Dolphins

18. Peyton Manning- QB- Indianapolis Colts

19. Knowshon Moreno- RB- Denver Broncos

20. Ryan Grant- RB- Green Bay Packers

21. Miles Austin- WR- Dallas Cowboys

22. Roddy White-WR- Atlanta Falcons

23. Tom Brady- QB- New England Patriots

24. Beanie Wells- RB- Arizona Cardinals

25. Shonn Greene- RB- New York Jets

26. Jamaal Charles- RB- Kansas City Chiefs

27. Cedric Benson- RB- Cincinnati Bengals

28. Greg Jennings- WR- Green Bay Packers

29. Ryan Matthews-RB- San Diego Chargers

30. Steve Smith- WR- Carolina Panthers

31. DeSean Jackson- WR- Philadelphia Eagles

32. Marques Colston- WR- New Orleans Saints

33. Matt Forte- RB- Chicago Bears

34. LeSean McCoy- RB- Philadelphia Eagles

35. Phillip Rivers- QB- San Diego Chargers

36. Anquan Boldin- WR- Baltimore Ravens

37. Matt Schaub- QB- Houston Texans

38. Sidney Rice- WR- Minnesota Vikings

39. Jonathan Stewart-RB- Carolina Panthers

40. Pierre Thomas- RB- New Orleans Saints

41. Dallas Clark- TE- Indianapolis Colts

42. Antonio Gates- TE- San Diego Chargers

43. Tony Romo- QB- Dallas Cowboys

44. Chad Ochocinco- WR- Cincinnati Bengals

45. Vernon Davis- San Francisco 49ers

46. Michael Crabtree- WR- San Francisco 49ers

47. Ronnie Brown- RB- Miami Dolphins

48. Dwayne Bowe- WR- Kansas City Chiefs

49. Ricky Williams- RB- Miami Dolphins

50. Joseph Addai- RB- Indianpolis Colts

It’s that time of the year again.  It’s time for fantasy football.  Since many drafts are in August, I feel that it’s the time to do a little preview of the year to come.  First off are my sleeper picks on the year.  Now don’t get mad at me when these players put on an amazing year but you didn’t listen to me and didn’t pick them up.

http://monkeysmashesheaven.files.

Chad Henne- QB- Miami Dolphins

Henne is now the full-time starter in Miami and he showed flashes of fantasy stud last year.  This includes his 29-52, 335 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT performance in the 22-21 victory over the Patriots.  Now with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both fully healthy and not to mention Brandon Marshall (the only play other than Wes Welker to have 3 straight 100 reception and 1000 yard seasons) the Dolphins offense should have no problems.  The passing game is improved with Marshall as a legitimate #1 option and Devone Bess settling into the #2 receiver role.  Definitely look for Henne’s TD totals to increase by at least 50% (12 last year to probably 18 or 20 this year).  While I wouldn’t take him over the upper echelon QBs in Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees, Henne should prove to be a solid QB that gets his points.

Justin Forsett- RB- Seattle Seahawks

When given 10 or more carries a game last season, Forsett put up monster fantasy numbers.  And as the best possible option at RB, the Seahawks have to give him a long, hard look as their starting RB despite the addition of Leon Washington.  Forsett should be able to build off last season’s success and be the best RB option in Seattle since Shaun Alexander’s MVP season.  If given the opportunity, Forsett should be able to gain over 1000 yards and right around 10 rushing TDs.

Jay Cutler/Devin Aromashadu/Earl Bennett/Greg Olson- Chicago Bears

This sleeper pick is based solely on Mike Martz and his offensive strategy.  I’ll let the statistics do the talking.  As the offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions in 2006 and 2007, the Mike Martz pass happy offense allowed Jon Kitna to throw for over 4000 yds in each season and 39 TDs combined (21 in 2006 and 18 in 2007).  As the offensive coordinator in San Francisco in 2008 Mike Martz was able to even put up solid passing stats with the 49ers anemic passing attack.  Between the 2 starters for the season (J.T. O’Sullivan and Shaun Hill) the 49ers QBs threw for 3700 yards and 21 TDs.  Now with an All- Pro QB in Jay Cutler, expect the passing yards and touchdowns to increase from Cutler’s 2009 season ( 3600 yards and 27 touchdowns).  Expect Cutler to rebound from a disappointing year and expect him to bring his wide receivers along with him.

Kenny Britt- WR- Tennessee Titans

Britt had a solid rookie season with 701 yards and 3 touchdowns.  But with the QB switch from Kerry Collins to Vince Young mid season, those numbers are just a little more impressive.  He has established himself as a solid option for Vince Young and look for a 1000 yard season from Kenny Britt.  His touchdown count may also increase to about 8 or 9.  With a whole training camp to get on track with Vince Young, those numbers shouldn’t be hard to achieve by Britt.

Devin Thomas- WR- Washington Redskins

The typical breakout season for a NFL wide receiver is season 3.  Thomas is entering his third season but thats not the only reason he could potentially have a solid year statistically.  With Donovan McNabb at the helm, the Redskins passing attack should really improve and McNabb has been known to spread the ball to all his receivers.  Throughout his career McNabb has made his receivers viable fantasy players and he should continue to do so in Washington.  And with Mike Shanahan’s great offensive mind, it only makes it easier on Thomas to break out for a great fantasy season.

Matt Moore- QB- Carolina Panthers

In Moore’s last 4 starts of 2009 he threw for 800+ yds, 8 TDs, and 0 INTs.  He will look to build on that this season as he comes into this season as the starter.  Moore still has Steve Smith and  great running backs who can catch out of the backfield in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.  Expect Moore to put up around 3300-3700 yards and 20-25 TDs with 10-12 picks, a solid stat line for quarterback.